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As part of U.S. antiproliferation efforts, both reactors are supposed to be retrofitted to use a fuel containing less than 20% uranium-235 when it becomes available, perhaps in the 2030s.

Both Davenport and Ian Stewart, a professor at King’s College London who runs its antiproliferation studies program called Project Alpha, worry about miscalculations from Iran, the U.S. or the West amid the brinksmanship.

The West wants to believe the Iran nuclear deal is an antiproliferation triumph, but Iran’s neighbors view it as a delaying action at best.

Some antiproliferation experts said it is just as well the administration wanted to drop the plant because turning plutonium into reactor fuel introduces it into commerce, where it could be diverted for weapons use.

Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, an antiproliferation group in Washington, said it was unclear what Mr. Assad gained by delay.