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“It’s been an unsettling time, and that’s why after a massive bull market, you’re seeing, especially major tech stocks, go through just a disaster period to start the year.”

For example, cutting back to 3.5% in down years and splurging slightly above 4% in bull markets allows your portfolio to outlast unpredictable conditions.

Although its results have been buoyed by a bull market — the S&P 500 stock index has risen about 38 percent over the same term — investors have handsomely rewarded the company’s performance.

But whether the current bull market has any chance of being sustained will depend in large part on the Fed’s ability to dampen inflation without harming the core of the economy.

Right now, economic data suggest that slowing inflation, robust economic growth and a bull market could give Mr. Biden a strong tailwind by November.