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They found the eGFR equation consistently underestimated kidney function in Black patients, so they used a common statistical method called curve fitting to adjust the estimates according to race.

It’s a characteristic feature of this kind of analysis, called “curve fitting,” that you can extrapolate from observed data without any knowledge of the mechanism underlying whatever real-life thing you’re studying.

Such “curve fitting” renders the program incapable of making meaningful predictions, he says.

Müller, H. G. Weighted local regression and kernel methods for nonparametric curve fitting.

The light curve fitting code described here is publicly available at the following website: https://star.pst.qub.ac.uk/wiki/doku.php/users/ajerkstrand/lightcurvecodes.