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The original warning came five days in advance but misestimated the location of the landfall by 250 miles.

Also, insurers appear to have initially misestimated the mix of people — healthy and sick — who would sign up through the marketplaces, which resulted in their costs rising higher than they anticipated.

Many of the first-year sites were in high-poverty neighborhoods — and that could be one reason for the misestimate, he said.

UnitedHealth Group warned nearly two months ago that new customers from the Affordable Care Act exchanges would hurt the insurer’s bottom line, but it looks like it misestimated by how much as enrollments exceeded expectations.

"The underwriters misestimated what the market was willing to pay."