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The last thing he wants to do right now is to commit US combat troops and air power to a notional unstable ceasefire line which has the potential to erupt into a shooting war that drags in Nato forces.

When I left London almost two weeks ago after the rebel coalition captured Aleppo - a stunning victory dwarfed by what followed - I thought I would be reporting a shooting war.

Presidential elections rarely hinge on questions of foreign policy, except when the United States is in a shooting war.

The key question here is whether this all drags in the US, leading to a full-scale shooting war between Iran and US forces in the region.

Iran promises major retaliation, but neither Israel nor Iran wants a major shooting war, given the stakes for both countries.