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“This is the largest transition in our industry since its inception,” said Tony Totty, the president of a United Auto Workers local that represents G.M. workers in Toledo.

Mr. Totty is optimistic about the members of his local.

There is “an expiration date on those facilities and those communities,” Mr. Totty said.

Over coffee at the Monroe Street Diner, Tony Totty, president of United Auto Workers Local 14, suggested in two sentences why Ryan has a shot — and how the Democratic brand has soured.

Still, it’s worth noting that Totty thinks Ryan is going to win.